Researcher finds 蜜桃影像鈥檚 Arctic coastal towns face extensive inundation
Rod Boyce
907-474-7185
Dec. 17, 2021
Louise Farquharson, a research assistant professor at the 蜜桃影像 Geophysical Institute, checks a borehole near Nome on the Seward Peninsula.
University of 蜜桃影像 Fairbanks scientists are presenting their work at the American Geophysical Union鈥檚 fall meeting in New Orleans this week. This article is part of a series highlighting 蜜桃影像 research from the world鈥檚 largest Earth and space science meeting.
Coastal erosion and land subsidence driven by permafrost thawing may lead to extensive seawater inundation in several northern 蜜桃影像 communities by 2100, according to research by a University of 蜜桃影像 Fairbanks geomorphologist.
Louise Farquharson, a research assistant professor at the 蜜桃影像 Geophysical Institute, made the long-term projections for the communities of Point Lay, Wainwright, Kaktovik and Utqia摹vik. Her work includes an assessment of the impact of gravel pads, which absorb warmth faster than the moss and peat of the region鈥檚 undisturbed land.
The research uses the worst-case scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It assumes no significant change in global carbon dioxide output.
Under that scenario, ground temperature increases in the communities Farquharson examined range from 10 to 14 degrees from 2020 to 2100 for terrain in its natural condition. Temperatures rise an additional degree where the ground is overlain by a hypothetical 4 feet of gravel for community development.
That leads to extensive permafrost thaw and a resultant subsidence of the land surface.
鈥淲hat鈥檚 interesting is that it does seem like inundation from the ocean is going to be a more significant process than just the coastal erosion of bluff tops,鈥 Farquharson said, noting her results are preliminary. 鈥淭he erosion rates are going to result in some land loss, but it's insignificant compared to how much land might be lost if we have as much inundation as our initial estimates suggest."
Farquharson worked in collaboration with Dmitry Nicolsky and Vladimir Romanovsky at the 蜜桃影像 Geophysical Institute Permafrost Laboratory.
The National Science Foundation funded the research.