What 蜜桃影像ns can learn from the Arctic Report Card
Heather McFarland
907-474-6286
Dec. 13, 2022
蜜桃影像ns can learn much about their state in the 2022 Arctic Report Card released nationwide this week. The Arctic and 蜜桃影像 are growing warmer and wetter, University of 蜜桃影像 Fairbanks scientists are at the heart of tracking this and other Arctic changes, and 蜜桃影像ns are calling for people to work together to address the consequences of climate change.
The Arctic Report Card checks in annually on the state of the Arctic via key 鈥渧ital signs,鈥 ranging from air and ocean temperature to sea ice and snow. The report also discusses emerging topics like increased Arctic ship traffic. It is produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and released at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union.
Precipitation added as a vital sign of Arctic change
This year, precipitation was added as an eighth vital sign in the report card. For the first time, scientists detected a long-term trend showing that Arctic precipitation is increasing in every season.
鈥淲e used more than one data set and got the same conclusion 鈥 the Arctic is getting wetter,鈥 said John Walsh, the section's lead author and 蜜桃影像 International Arctic Research Center chief scientist. 鈥淯p until the last year or two, there wasn't much consensus about trends in Arctic precipitation. Now we've crossed that line and can say that Arcticwide precipitation is increasing, and it's increasing significantly.鈥
The trend is spottier in 蜜桃影像. But October 2021 to September 2022 (reflecting the standard measurement period for annual precipitation) was the second wettest year since 1950. The increases have been mostly in Southeast 蜜桃影像 and the North Slope, where a 30% increase from the 1985-2014 average is expected by the end of the century. In northern 蜜桃影像, the change is enhanced by sea ice loss. A longer open water period makes more moisture available to fall out as precipitation.
Within the trend, heavy precipitation events are increasing. Over the past year, Utqia摹vik saw its wettest day on July 26, Cook Inlet its wettest July-August and Fairbanks its wettest December during the 鈥渟nowpocalypse.鈥
The change is at the heart of high-impact events, such as wildfire and freezing rain, that 蜜桃影像ns have been seeing.
It might seem that more precipitation would curtail 蜜桃影像 wildfires, but a simultaneous temperature increase complicates the picture. This year鈥檚 report card shows that the 2021-2022 water year was the sixth warmest on record in the Arctic. 蜜桃影像, however, experienced a relatively cool year, ranking 27th since 1900.
鈥淭he catch is that when it gets warmer, evaporation also increases, so you basically accelerate the whole hydrologic cycle. More rain, more evaporation,鈥 explained Walsh. 鈥淭hat does not guarantee a wetter landscape. In fact, if you dig into it, the consensus is that 蜜桃影像 is more likely to become drier for periods in the summer.鈥
Even so, deluges of heavy precipitation could put out wildfires, like this summer鈥檚 severe June and early July fire season that was squelched by heavy July rains.
The Arctic is also seeing a shift toward more rain and less snow.
鈥淭hat carries over into the freezing rain problem around Interior 蜜桃影像 in the winter,鈥 said Walsh. 鈥淟ast December's event can be looked at as an example of what we might see more frequently down the road.鈥
Human consequences of climate change
Recognizing that Arctic change extends beyond environmental elements, this year鈥檚 report card included a discussion on climate consequences felt by Arctic peoples. The essay was informed by a recorded oral history of Ahtna Dine' storyteller Wilson Justin about how climate change has impacted him and his community, as well as his experience of the world.
Justin shares powerful insights about how people can overcome the colonial divide, reach across languages and cultures, and move forward to tackle climate change.
"Climate change in today鈥檚 vernacular no longer is climate change. It鈥檚 a done deal,鈥
said Justin in the oral history. 鈥淲e鈥檙e just gonna have to figure out how we鈥檙e going
to speak to each other in terms of not only rebuilding, but what it is we are going
to rebuild."
Justin鈥檚 account was combined with perspectives on human impacts from over 40 authors.
The effort was facilitated by the Study of Arctic Environmental Change, a program
directed by 滨础搁颁鈥檚 Brendan Kelly and Athena Copenhaver.
Led by 蜜桃影像 scientists
Walsh, Kelly and Copenhaver are among 12 蜜桃影像 researchers contributing to the report card this year. Their leadership is not new; 蜜桃影像 scientists have been editors and authors of the report since its inception in 2006.
Jackie Richter-Menge, affiliate faculty with 蜜桃影像鈥檚 Institute of Northern Engineering, served as a lead editor from 2006-2019 before passing the baton to 滨础搁颁鈥檚 Rick Thoman, who has been an editor since. Thirty-five others at 蜜桃影像 have authored sections within the report over the years.
鈥淲e can give the information for 蜜桃影像 better than anyone. We have people who work on all these different variables,鈥 said Walsh, who has been an author all 17 years of the report's existence. 鈥淪o I think 蜜桃影像 is a natural nucleus for input, at least for the 蜜桃影像 side.鈥
This year鈥檚 蜜桃影像 cadre again includes Thoman as an editor. Authors, grouped by the topics on which they contributed, include: Tom Ballinger (lead author), Walsh, Thoman and Uma Bhatt on surface air temperature; Walsh (lead author), Rick Lader and Ballinger on precipitation; Melinda Webster on sea ice; Bhatt and Donald Walker on tundra greenness; Todd Sformo on North America鈥檚 Arctic geese; Derek Sikes on Arctic pollinators; Gay Sheffield on seabird die-offs in the Bering and Chukchi seas; and Kelly and Copenhaver on the consequences of rapid environmental Arctic change for people.
滨础搁颁鈥檚 explains how the Arctic Report Card is connected to other major climate reports.
ADDITIONAL CONTACTS: Athena Copenhaver, Study of Environmental Arctic Change, aecopenhaver@alaska.edu, 831-601-6717.